The continuing Venezuelan threat

Even as all eyes are on the Middle East as the US/Israel and Iran slug it out with missiles, all is not quiet on our western front. The Government of Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela strongly condemned our announcement of a three-dimensional seismic exploration campaign in our Atlantic waters within our Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Their communique sees us conducting “…unilateral exploration activities over part of the maritime spaces that are pending delimitation, in open contravention of fundamental principles of international law.” This clearly demonstrates that in their border controversy over Essequibo, Rodriguez is following the antagonistic line of her predecessor that insists Essequibo and the waters off its shore are theirs.
Directly after taking office in 2013, Maduro seized the “Teknik Perdana”, conducting a deep-water seismic survey for Texas-based Anadarko Petroleum, hired by our Government. This was long before Exxon’s strike in 2015 but AFTER a discovery off French Guiana in 2011. A week after Exxon struck oil, Maduro issued a decree claiming our entire EEZ. It was then a low-hanging fruit for Mad Maduro’s domestic political challenges, which he would buttress with his referendum and annexation of Essequibo. It remains one for Delcy Rodríguez, who still has to be cautious of Chavistas within the regime who consider her rapprochement with the US as a “betrayal”.
That relationship continues to be strengthened with almost daily announcements of new areas of cooperation. On the same day as the protest on our seismic survey, in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, the Dept of State reiterated Pres Trump’s declaration from the week before at the Shield of the Americas summit, his recognition of Delcy Rodriguez as the sole head of state authorised to act on behalf of Venezuela in the US. Rodriguez responded very expansively to her countrymen: “This is not recognition of a person or a Government; it is recognition of a country, so that the country can recover its way of life, can breathe again in terms of services, health, and education.” She played to local sentiments by urging national unity, stating that. {…the current effort must be for the political, economic, and social health of the country. All organisations have a place here.”
Our concern, of course, has to be what all of this means for us vis a vis Venezuela’s undiluted revanchist ambitions. In December 2023, we suggested establishing a military base in Essequibo manned by specialised troops, to which the US forces would have access through a defence treaty between our countries. But we cautioned, “We cannot only shelter under the US wing by band-wagoning: the US will pursue its own interest, and this might not align precisely with ours at various times.” Even though the US has declared support for our ICJ initiative and Exxon’s exploitation of our oil offers some measure of security, we cannot be complacent.
There are several competitive strategies available to small states facing coercion by their stronger neighbour: denial, cost imposition, attacking their strategy and political system. We are already doing a good job of attacking Venezuela’s strategy of annexation in the ICJ, which should be handing down a decision soon. Because it is widely accepted that it will be in our favour, the Venezuelans have pre-emptively announced their rejection of the ICJ’s jurisdiction, even as they continue to make submissions. The Americans, however, have legitimised their political system after removing Maduro, but this will remain tenuous if domestic conditions do not improve significantly and elections are held.
We can deepen our ongoing denial and cost imposition strategies. As a small nation – even though we now have oil revenues buttressing our Consolidated Funds – we need to deploy our defence budget in a manner that is best suited to the theatre in which we could be engaged – and not only from Venezuela. Because of the overwhelming size of the Venezuelan land, air and sea forces, while we should maintain our present conventional forces, enlarging them to counter Venezuela is not a viable option. We will have to think outside the box to cause them to think twice before attacking us. In a phrase, we will have to rethink doctrine and force structure.
We should formulate a strategy of denial and cost imposition – with the limited aim of changing Venezuela’s decision-making calculus and thus their strategic behaviour. Our Essequibo terrain favours this denial strategy since unlike Venezuela, our goal is not to occupy their territory.