The Dollar, the Yuan and Guyana’s Oil Money

China has watched Washington use access to the dollar centred financial system as a tool for influencing the behavious of nations and drawn an obvious conclusion: a great power – which it is working overtime to become and displace the US – needs another way to pay its bills. In his September 26 American Spectator article, Thomas Kolbe argues that Beijing is building the financial machinery to trade without depending so heavily on the US dollar. It would then appear that its commitment to the BRICS+ initiative to achieve this goal more broadly is merely a backup plan and may explain why it has lagged.
Kolbe explained that China’s cross border payment system, CIPS, lets banks settle transactions in yuan. Its clearing infrastructure gives those transactions a broader financial market. And Bridge points towards direct digital payments between central banks. Taken together, these are more than a protest against American sanctions. They are the beginnings of a working alternative, especially for countries that trade heavily with China. His argument, however, is that the machinery may work, China still faces a harder task: persuading other countries to trust the yuan as a long term home for their wealth.
For Guyana, this is no longer a distant quarrel between monetary giants. Oil has made us a holder of substantial foreign assets that is deposited in the US Fed. The Natural Resource Fund was valued at US$3.64 billion at the end of March 2026. Every decision about the currencies and assets in which Guyana holds its earnings now has consequences for future budgets, imports and generations of Guyanese.
There is little reason to announce that Guyana will abandon the dollar. Oil is traded in a market where it remains central, and Guyana needs ready access to dollars to pay for imports and meet external obligations. The dollar’s strength lies in the depth of US financial markets, the ease of buying and selling dollar assets, and confidence that investors can keep what they own. Kolbe’s central contention is that China’s political system where the Communist Party has absolute control over all aspects of the economy and the leaders are not elected democratically, cannot yet offer comparable confidence. Beijing may be able to make the yuan convenient for trade while leaving governments and investors reluctant to hold it for decades.
There is an irony here in that while presently, American sanctions may give countries a reason to seek alternatives, China’s own capacity to intervene in financial affairs gives them a reason to hesitate. Gold reserves and clever technology may ease that hesitation but neither can, by itself, guarantee independent rules. Kolbe’s argument therefore points to a gradual shift, rather than an overnight “dollar killer.” Countries may increasingly settle particular trades in yuan without replacing their dollar reserves.
Equally, loyalty to the dollar should not therefore become a rule against considering every other currency. If a Guyanese importer and a Chinese supplier can settle a transaction in yuan more cheaply and reliably, they should be able to assess that option on its merits. A currency useful for paying a bill is not automatically the best place to keep the nation’s savings.
That distinction should guide policy. The government and Bank of Guyana should publish a clear account of the Fund’s currency and asset exposures, its approach to safeguarding them, and the risks it considers when changing that mix. They should develop practical capacity for trade settlement in other currencies where it lowers costs, while keeping the Fund’s investments governed by liquidity, safety and independently assessed returns. Any diversification should be gradual, transparent and consistent with the Fund’s legal mandate. This is a recommendation drawn from our position as an oil producer, rather than a claim made by Kolbe
Guyana has no need to enlist in either side’s currency campaign. It needs the freedom to trade widely, the discipline to protect its oil earnings, and the good sense to judge each financial proposal by what it does for Guyana.