The Guyanese auto market is in the middle of a four-year decline, the longest multi-year decline since 1990. This situation is in response to the dwindling demand in the economy, as more Guyanese switch from a mode of confidence in the economy to survival mode. So what ill-gotten cash is Clive Thomas referring to?
Consumers usually buy products such as cars, and build houses when they feel very positive about their finances. Unfortunately, the number of people feeling positive about the state of the economy in 2017 has declined in geometric proportions from 2011 and 2012.
If one were to look at the two graphs above, one would find a rapid downward trend in the sale of reconditioned and new vehicles between 2013 and 2016. Based on my preliminary discussions with someone well aware of the car sales industry, in the first three (3) months of 2017, vehicle sales were even worse than it was in 2016. This situation reinforces the low confidence in the 2017 economy, as more and more people observe how the growth of their real wages cannot compensate for the expansion in their cost of living.
After 2006, Guyana saw a steep increase in vehicles registered, until it finally peaked in 2012 at over 15,000 vehicles per year. It has since been consistently declining, until it finally broke through the “10,000 cars sold per year” level in 2015. In 2016, for the first time in nine years, vehicles registered fell below 8,500.
This performance signals to an analyst like me that an economic crisis is forming in Guyana, and it is incoming at a rapid pace. If pro-growth public policy action is not taken now, this situation could push this economy, by 2019, back into the days when Guyana was not able to adequately service its international loans and its other international payments.
It therefore defies all logic why President Granger cannot man-up and accept he has erred with Winston Jordan. It is imperative that, as President, he thinks of Guyana first and urgently moves to strengthen his economic management team. He has only one choice in his cabinet that has real experience at managing an economy — Vice President Carl Greenidge. The longer President Granger hides in his ivory tower and avoids reality, the more the Guyanese people will lose confidence in the economy and his government. The consequences will be a permanent dark mark on whatever he conceives as his historical legacy.
It matters not who is in power, once the people lose confidence in the way the economy is being managed, there can be no turning back until there is a change in the leadership at the Ministry of Finance. The more President Granger resists, the more this challenge will persist, and the end game will be a rapid march to economic implosion. 
Although, in 2011, the Guyanese people had declared their loss of confidence in the political leadership of former President Ramotar, the people still had confidence in Ashni Singh’s management of the economy. So, although people were changing their votes in 2011 from the PPP and PNC to the AFC, they were not pulling their assets out of Guyana. One only has to read the newspaper headlines from 2011 to grasp this fact. One newspaper in 2011 blared, “Guyana goes on a car-buying frenzy”.
At elections time, Guyanese usually get very cautious. Yet, in the month of the 2011 elections, Guyanese bought 1,188 vehicles. Even after a minority government was declared, the Guyanese people bought some 1,166 vehicles. Today, in March 2017, they bought less than 690 vehicles in that month. Comparing the two periods is like comparing chalk with cheese.
This poor management of the economy under Minister Jordan is having a profound impact on people’s psyches. This Guyanese economy has now fallen off its usual track, and consumers are feeling absolutely negative and hopeless about their economic future under President Granger. Just walk through the markets and interview the ordinary people, and they will reveal the real temperature in the economy. For the coming 12 months, hopelessness at all ends of the market will take centre stage, except in the harem that hosts the cabal of ruling politicians.
