Comparative analysis of real GDP

at (current basic prices) for the period 2011-2014, 2015-2018

Today’s article focuses on a comparative analysis of the composition of real GDP for the period 2011-2014 and 2015-2018. The table below shows real GDP at basic prices – the actual computation that is for the period 2011-2018. The purpose of this analysis is to show a comparative analysis of the growth of GDP for the four-year period 2011 -2014, relative to 2015 – 2018.

Essentially, the composition and the performance of GDP constitutes fourteen sectors as outlined in the above table, of which the agriculture, fishing and forestry sector is the largest contributor to GDP, accounting for 16 per cent of GDP. Then, mining & quarrying is the second largest contributor to GDP representing 13 per cent of GDP together with the wholesale and retail trade sector representing accounting for 13 per cent of GDP as well. Third, is the construction sector accounting for 12 per cent of GDP; transportation and storage sector accounts for 11 per cent of GDP; and the manufacturing, and Information and Communications Technology Sectors, together with the public administration sector account for 7 per cent of GDP, respectively. These sectors combined accounts for 93 per cent of GDP, while the others such as electricity and water, financial and insurance services, health and social services, education, real estate activities and other services activities account for the remaining 7 per cent of GDP.
Having said that, the interesting and worrying revelation of the data above for both comparative periods is such that for the period 2011-2014, the economy experienced a more broad-based and vibrant growth in all sectors. More so, for both of the “four-year periods”, the level of overall real GDP growth was almost the same at 20 per cent. Notwithstanding this, the level of growth for the period 2015-2018 when compared to the previous period was driven by growth in only three sectors that accounted for only 38 per cent of GDP – that is, mining and quarrying, construction and wholesale and retail trade.
While the other sectors, which account for the remaining 62 per cent of GDP, did experience positive growth altogether – with the exception of agriculture, fishing and forestry, which declined relative to the corresponding period; the level of positive growth experienced for the other sectors, were all characterised as weaker growth relative to the period 2011-2014. To this end, as shown in the data: manufacturing was 72 per cent lower than the corresponding period. The other sectors namely electricity and water was down by 79 per cent, transportation and storage down by 28 per cent, ICT down by 55 per cent, financial and insurance activities down by 88 per cent, public administration down by 57 per cent, education down by 73 per cent, health and social services down by 67 per cent, real estate activities down by 24 per cent, other services activities down by 19 per cent; and the agriculture, fishing and forestry down by 112 per cent.
The three sectors that kept the economy growing for the period 2015-2018 which, fortunately were suffice to offset this level of weaker performances of the sectors that account for 62 per cent of GDP were the mining & quarrying sector which went up by 1831 per cent relative to the previous period of 2011-2014; construction which went up by 132 per cent and the wholesale and retail trade sector up by 113 per cent.
Taken together, the last four years growth were not as vibrant as the economic growth performances achieved for the period 2011-2014 wherein the economy experienced real broad-based and healthy growth in all the sectors as compared to growth in only three key sectors that account for a mere 38 per cent of total GDP. This effectively means that 62 percent of the economy which constitute GDP are in serious trouble and this is not healthy for the long term economic stability.