Enough is enough

The A Partnership for National Unity/Alliance For Change (APNU/AFC)-created political crisis in Guyana is certainly taking a toll on every aspect of Guyana’s development, more so, the nascent oil and gas sector.
Many Guyanese started 2020 with a positive outlook as there was renewed hope and excitement that the year would have been a turning point for the country considering the fact that huge amounts of revenues from the oil sector would have been flowing in by now.
Barring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the political chaos engulfing the country is taking a severe toll on the economy. It is now close to five months and the results of the elections held on March 2 are yet to be officially declared even after a national recount has confirmed that the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) has convincingly won the polls.
The David Granger-led APNU/AFC Government is doing everything possible to stall a declaration and allow the duly-elected Government from getting on with the business of development. Even in the face of visa restrictions and threats of further sanctions from world powers, the APNU/AFC has shown no indication that it will budge.
Some experts have outlined that Guyana’s oil resources would become inaccessible and there will be dire consequences for the entire country should Granger’s APNU/AFC coalition continue along this path in spite of growing international intolerance.
As it currently stands, many development projects, especially those within the oil and gas sector, are at a standstill due to the absence of a democratic and functioning government. For example, the Payara Project, which was expected to rake in billions of dollars to Guyana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is one such project which has been plagued with delays, and based on projections by experts, the country, and the company and its partners, could face tremendous financial losses as a result of these setbacks.
The Payara development was envisaged to be sanctioned in 2019 and deliver first oil by 2023, but has faced challenges in securing approvals in recent months due to the elections crisis. According to a recent report by Rystad Energy, if these delays are prolonged, they will result in a decrease of the country’s planned oil revenues; the asset’s net present value (NPV); and its expected production.
Rystad Energy noted that the delays have already removed more than 50 million barrels of production that could have been achieved by 2030 if the project had been sanctioned in 2019. It must be pointed out too that the delays could have a domino effect on numerous other projects in the Stabroek Block.
Senior Contributor for Forbes, David Blackmon, recently expressed similar views, noting that Guyana’s oil and gas industry is standing on “shaky ground” amid the ongoing political controversy. According to Blackmon, billions of dollars of potential economic impact from the development of the nation’s rich offshore oil and gas assets stand at risk.
He pointed to the fact that Guyana is in competition with other high-potential projects around the world for the massive capital investments these companies and other developers must deploy to find and produce these oil and gas resources. Blackmon noted that for companies like ExxonMobil, “stability and predictability are big considerations when determining where to deploy their capital dollars, since those factors have a tremendous impact on the anticipated rate of return on those investments”.
According to Blackmon, right now, Guyana is losing stability and predictability – two precious assets for any Government wishing to benefit from minerals development by international operators – due to this ongoing election controversy.
No one really knows how long the nation will be made to endure this misery; what we know for sure is that it is draining the country in every respect.
In yet another act viewed as a clear abuse of the court process, the APNU/AFC has moved to appeal the ruling of Chief Justice (ag) Roxane George in which she made it clear that the recount figures are the only valid results standing and must be used to declare a winner. Everyone, including the coalition itself, knows that the battle to prevent the certified recount figures from being used to declare a winner is a losing one.
At the moment, Granger’s APNU/AFC is standing alone; against the entire world. All of the international organisations, Governments and civil society groups cannot be wrong. President Granger and his APNU/AFC must heed the mounting calls to step aside immediately for the good of the country. Enough is enough.