Strong oil, non-oil sectors drive Guyana’s economic expansion – IMF

…says Guyana’s economic outlook “highly favourable”

Driven by strong oil and non-oil activity, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Guyana’s economy continues to grow rapidly – a performance that is supported by prudent economic management. This was among the findings following the conclusion of the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Mission. According to the concluding statement, the country continues to record one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.
“Guyana’s economy continues to expand at a very rapid pace, supported by robust oil and non-oil activity,” the Fund stated. The IMF went on to note that the country has a positive economic outlook that is supported by expanding oil production, sustained public investments and continued growth across the non-oil economy.
“The economic outlook remains highly favourable,” it says. The fund reported that Guyana’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by over 19 per cent in 2025, after averaging nearly 40 per cent growth during the two previous years. Oil production exceeded expectations by surpassing 900,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025 – an impressive 35 per cent increase over last year, with similar volumes achieved in the first half of 2026. Even more encouraging is the resilience of the non-oil economy, which the IMF highlighted continued at about 14 per cent, led by the construction sector and meaningful contributions from agriculture, mining and manufacturing.

“These trends broadly continued in the first half of 2026, though some sectors were affected by heavy rainfall,” the Fund stated, adding that robust growth was also seen in a stronger labour market, with unemployment down to 6.2 per cent at the end of last year. Inflation was relatively contained at 3.3 per cent in 2025 but edged up by mid-2026 due to higher energy and food prices on the global market.

Fiscal position and policies
Moreover, the IMF noted that Guyana’s fiscal and external positions improved in 2025, as oil revenues more than compensated for weaker non-oil revenues. The overall fiscal deficit narrowed to 5.5 per cent of GDP, while strong credit growth continued to support household consumption and business investment. While foreign exchange (FX) demand remained elevated because of import-intensive private investments, rising oil production and declining oil-related service imports strengthened the external position.
The Fund further commended the Government for maintaining prudent fiscal and monetary policies while also implementing its Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) 2030, which focuses on economic diversification, resilience and sustainability. It went on to add that the deposits in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) are strengthening external and fiscal buffers, while large investments in infrastructure, education and healthcare are supporting the diversification of the non-oil economy. Additionally, tight monetary conditions have helped maintain price and exchange rate stability, while fiscal measures have cushioned near-term price pressures. Despite this, however, the fund warns the Government to be cautious.
“These policies, together with the continued strengthening of governance frameworks, have helped sustain macroeconomic stability, support growth, and advance national development priorities. Available indicators do not point to clear signs of overheating or resource-driven competitiveness pressures. However, strong wage growth and wage-based real exchange rate indicators warrant close monitoring,” the IMF advised.

Future outlook
In fact, even with a “highly favourable” economic outlook, the Fund cautioned about overheating risks. Looking ahead, it says stronger export earnings and increasing inflows into the NRF are expected to further strengthen Guyana’s fiscal and external accounts as additional oil projects become operational and existing developments mature. In the same breath, however, the IMF warned that risks remain balanced amid global uncertainty.
“Risks around the near-term outlook are broadly balanced in the context of elevated global uncertainty. On the upside, further oil discoveries would continue to improve growth prospects, and construction growth and strong public investment may support higher-than-expected short-term non-oil growth. Higher oil prices would further improve fiscal and external accounts, but could also intensify overheating pressures, leading to real exchange rate appreciation beyond the level consistent with a balanced expansion of the economy, with oil price volatility adding to fiscal risks. Adverse climate shocks may also negatively impact the economy,” it stated.
Nevertheless, the IMF went on to laud the Government’s sustained fiscal discipline, noting that the country’s debt remains among the lowest in the hemisphere, with a low risk of debt distress. If oil prices remain persistently high, the Fund recommended that a larger share of oil revenues be saved while maintaining investments in productivity-enhancing projects and targeted support for the vulnerable.
Moreover, the IMF staff urged the improvement of targeted subsidies and the gradual phase-out of broad price-mitigation measures over time to preserve price signals. The IMF also welcomed ongoing efforts to strengthen governance, improve transparency, modernise public financial management, reinforce anti-money laundering and anti-corruption frameworks and enhance oversight of the extractive sector.
The Fund further recognised Guyana’s commitment to climate resilience and economic diversification through investments in renewable energy, climate-resilient infrastructure, agriculture, and human capital, noting that these initiatives will help improve competitiveness, lower energy costs, and sustain inclusive economic growth over the long term.
This report followed the IMF staff team, led by Ms Lusine Lusinyan, concluding the 2026 Article IV Consultation after holding discussions virtually and in Georgetown from July 20 to 31. During the mission, the team met with Finance Minister Dr Ashni Singh; Central Bank Governor Dr Gobind Ganga; Minister of Parliamentary Affairs and Governance Gail Teixeira; Attorney General (AG) and Minister of Legal Affairs Mohabir Anil Nandlall; senior Government officials; representatives of the private sector; commercial banks; labour unions; and other stakeholders.