Venezuela’s Rising Challenge

Fresh from her first foreign visit to Grenada-a CARICOM member but also a member of ALBA, which her country founded and dominates-Acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez has been on a roll after arrogantly flaunting her Essequibo-appended brooch. On Thursday, after signing an “Organic Law of Mines” that placated a large swathe of local interests, she welcomed Venezuela’s reinstatement in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after years of exclusion.
Earlier in the week, she had authorized the transfer of a license for a Chevron-controlled gas field to Venezuela in exchange for the incorporation of an oil block in the Orinoco Oil Belt, Chevron’s joint venture with PDVSA. This will increase oil production beyond 1 million bpd.
These moves follow very friendly signals from President Trump, who reiterated that Rodriguez will soon be visiting Washington. This reemergence of Venezuela signals a shift in the regional balance that we cannot afford to ignore. This is not a crisis, but it is undeniably a strategic turning point.
For years, we have benefited from a favorable alignment of circumstances: a pariah Venezuela, we becoming a significant regional oil producer, and growing investor confidence. That landscape is changing. A Venezuela regaining economic footing and expanding its oil output will inevitably seek to reassert influence, and with hardliner Rodriguez at the helm, the long-standing controversy over the Essequibo region will remain central to that ambition.
But the answer for us is not panic, nor is it militarization on a scale we cannot sustain. The path forward lies in discipline, clarity, and strategic layering. First and foremost, we must continue to anchor our position in international law. The ongoing ICJ adjudication of the border controversy provides us with our strongest advantage: legitimacy. A clear legal outcome, backed by broad international recognition, would raise the diplomatic and economic cost for Venezuela to defy it. We must therefore invest sustained diplomatic energy in ensuring that the legal process is not only concluded but widely respected.
Second, partnerships matter more than ever. Security in the modern era is rarely about unilateral strength; it is about networks. By deepening ties with regional and global partners such as the US and Brazil-through joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and visible cooperation-we can reinforce a quiet but effective deterrent. The presence of trusted allies, even indirectly, alters the strategic calculus of any potential aggressor.
Third, we must continue our focused, asymmetric approach to defense. Not to build a large standing army, but rather to develop capabilities that address real vulnerabilities. Maritime surveillance, coast guard capacity, and rapid response systems are essential, particularly given the importance of offshore oil operations. The objective is not to fight a conventional war but to detect, deter, and respond to incidents before they escalate.
Equally important is the protection of our economic assets. The country’s oil sector-especially with Exxon as the operator-is not only a source of revenue; it is a strategic shield. International investment brings with it international attention, and any disruption would carry consequences far beyond the region. By ensuring that its energy infrastructure is secure and closely integrated with global partners, Guyana strengthens its overall security posture.
Diplomacy must also extend beyond traditional allies. By consistently engaging regional and multilateral organizations, we must frame the Essequibo issue as one of international law and the rights of small states. In doing so, we broaden the circle of stakeholders and increase the political cost of escalation for any party.
Domestically, development of the Essequibo region should be accelerated steadily and visibly. Infrastructure, services, and economic activity are not only beneficial for citizens; they reinforce sovereignty in practical terms. Presence matters, and long-term investment signals permanence without provocation. Our country’s response must remain measured, transparent, and firmly grounded in international law.
The reality is this: a stronger Venezuela will be more assertive, but it will also have more to lose. Our task is to ensure that any challenge to our sovereignty becomes prohibitively costly-politically, economically, and diplomatically. This is not a moment for alarm. It is a moment for strategy, which Pres Ali clearly grasps.