Guyana must not become another Kenya (Pt 2)

Dear Editor,
The first free and fair elections held that year in Kenya came at a heavy cost with 5000 dead and 25,000 displaced. The Kikuyus allied with the Kalenjins butchered the Luos, Luhas and Kambas.
As far as the Kikuyus were concerned, free and fair elections though agreed to was not expected to displace Kenyatta’s KANU party. But as elections go, the old guard in KANU was eventually replaced by new faces.
Ten years later, a National Rainbow Coalition combining leaders from several tribes, led by Mwai Kibaki, dethroned the KANU Party in free and fair elections held in 2002. Kibaki was elected President.
Kibaki’s style of governing rings a familiar bell in the present-day Guyanese context. He was deemed an old school politician with a preference for delegating. He had a magisterial, elitist rather than an activist approach to governance, while keeping himself aloof and above the fray. The populace was kept at a distance.
These perceived deficiencies notwithstanding Kibaki were known to have a steely side to his governance style. This was reflected following the 2007 elections when he claimed victory and swore himself in in the wee hours of the morning even before the final results were announced.
Those elections were mired in controversy and were followed by widespread riots and killings.
The results were close: 4,584,761 votes went to Kibaki’s National Unity Party while 4,352,993 for Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement.
Kibaki ran a minority Government which included the remnants of the KANU party.
Elections in Kenya have been on a roller coaster since then, with amoeba-like alliances taking shape year after year.
This year’s election was no different. Two newly formed electoral alliances; the National Super Alliance, led by Odinga and the Jubilee Alliance led by Kenyatta, reflected three main characteristics of Kenyan electoral politics.
First, the old KANU and KADU parties had been replaced by alliances; second, the decades long battles between the Kenyattas and Odingas continued; and thirdly, the tribal demarcations remained intact much the same as in Guyana save and except in the latter’s case it was the racial demarcations that remained intact.
We now know the outcome of the October 26, 2017 election which was boycotted by Odinga’s alliance but gave Kenyatta’s, 99 per cent of the total votes cast.
Odinga’s alliance’s call for electoral reforms is not much different from Guyana’s political Opposition’s call.
There are important lessons to be learnt from the Kenyan electoral experience.
Boycotting an election can prove to be a complex step with a host of factors to be considered. Any decision in that direction has political implications for the short-, medium- and long-term.
Both Kenya’s and Guyana’s elections have been characterised by fraud and violence especially during the 1968-1992 period. Compounding this deficiency is the perennial polarisation and voting along ethnic lines.
Already, widespread fears are being raised in Guyana about rigged elections in 2020. This fear has been fuelled by the People’s National Congress Reform’s decision to pick a Chairman for GECOM outside the Carter Center Formula, buttressed by that party’s crooked elections track record.
In the circumstances therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that the road towards the 2020 elections is fraught with grave dangers, since both the ruling A Partnership for National Unity/Alliance For Change and the Opposition People’s Progressive Party have begun girding their loins for big battles ahead.
Who will win the war will depend on the correlation of social and political forces at the national and international levels at that given point in time.

Sincerely,
Clement J Rohee