In all of human history, there is yet to be a SINGLE instance of an aggressor being deterred from further aggression through appeasement actions by the victim. All appeasement does is to confirm the initial assumptions of the aggressor that his victim FEELS too weak and IS too cowardly to fight back. This was distilled in the folk wisdom that “you give them an inch and they’ll take a mile”!!
Now, in the case of Putin’s taking HUNDREDS of miles of Ukraine, it’s not just his assessment that they’re too weak and cowardly. He knows that Europe and the US have strategic interests with Ukraine, and believe they’re the same.
Isn’t this why Putin said he invaded? That Ukraine wanted to join NATO – the EU and US ‘defensive shield? Now you, dear reader, may believe that your Eyewitness is personalising this war too much. Harking to the “great men” school of history and all that – to exclude structural factors like the need for “strategic depth” and “buffer state” etc. Well, aside from the fact that your Eyewitness doesn’t think Putin is any “great man”, he’s channelling some rather personal Russian feelings of being historically “dissed” by the EU and the US. And that’s as structural as you can get!
Even Marx – who came up with the ideology that Russia followed for 70 years in its futile push to catch up and get some respect from the West – pronounced that they weren’t ready!! And this was AFTER two of their aristocratic rulers, Fredrick and Catherine, who were bestowed with the appendage “GREAT”, also tried and failed!! Just can’t get any respect! Gotta give the Ruskies a real humungous inferiority complex, no? So, no, your Eyewitness isn’t personalising this “too much”.
Now on to the response by the West – sanctions. Isn’t this the same response they launched when Putin annexed Crimea in 2014 – which, in case you forgot, is a part of Ukraine?? But is now “WAS a part of Ukraine”?? And that’s Putin’s point, isn’t it? Just as with appeasement, your Eyewitness would like to know when sanctions have ever worked? Cuba since 1960? Iran since 1984? There will always be ways for these to be circumvented – even by their allies and even their own members!!
The bottom line is Putin’s convinced the EU and the US won’t commit boots on the ground – because they don’t want body bags to return with bodies in them. Russians, who suffered 20 million deaths in WWII – AFTER a similar number had been killed by Stalin – don’t have the same aversion to death. Especially when they’ve been told that the pride of Mother Russia’s at stake.
And so, at best, western Ukraine will be Russia’s.
…on two fronts
One would’ve thought that Europe and the West had learned a basic lesson by now – after Napoleon and Hitler – that you try not to fight a war simultaneously on two fronts. Strategically, it’s been clear to most for a decade that China is the US’ major strategic threat. It’s now an economic powerhouse about to overtake the US, has the military capabilities on land, air, and sea to back up its interests, and its authoritarian Government is unchallenged domestically. But the US has taken on Russia.
Doesn’t it worry that China might now make a move on Taiwan? All of Putin’s arguments for invading Ukraine apply: China sees Taiwan as historically part of its national territory – and as such – a breakaway province that must be brought back into the fold. If the US doesn’t commit troops to Ukraine, why should China worry that it’ll do so for Taiwan?? And sanctions will affect China even less than it will Russia – while hurting Americans more.
Can America survive empty Walmart shelves?
…with piece?
Your Eyewitness was surprised by Mia Mottley’s declaration that Caricom stood by us during the bad times, and must now share in the good times.
So Barbados’s Guyanese Bench and Trinidad’s Piarco harassment of traders was “standing by us”?
