Oil price drop to have “limited impact” on Guyana’s macroeconomic projections – IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that that the temporary decline in oil prices on the global market would have a “limited impact” on Guyana’s macroeconomic projections.
This was indicated in an updated Staff Statement within the IMF’s 2025 Article IV Consultation Report on Guyana.
Despite an increase in production in Guyana’s nascent oil sector, there is expected to be a decrease in oil prices this year compared to 2024.
In fact, the IMF in its April World Economic Outlook (WEO) revised its projected average crude oil price for this year to US$66.94 per barrel – a 4.04 per cent drop from a January estimate and a 15.5 per cent dip from the US$79.17 average in 2024.

However, the Guyana Government, in its 2025 budget, had projected a Brent crude price of US$71.90. This difference in prices could mean lower revenue for Guyana than initially estimated.
But despite this, the IMF predicts that Guyana’s economic outlook would remain highly favourable with an average growth of 14 per cent annually over the next five years – driven by robust oil production and strong non-oil Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increase.
“Compared to the staff report, the April 2025 WEO assumes on average about 5 per cent lower oil prices over the medium term, with prices converging to the original projections by 2030. As discussed in the staff report, upside risks to oil production, Guyana’s strong external position, the policy framework that smooths the oil price impact, the long-term nature of oil production plans, and Guyana’s low break-even oil price would largely limit the price effects,” the IMF Staff Statement detailed.
In its April 2025 Outlook, the IMF projected that Guyana’s Real GDP will expand by some 10.3 per cent this year with non-oil GDP projected to increase by about 13 per cent – the highest for in the region. Similarly, it also predicted a whopping 23 per cent GDP growth next year.
The 2025 first quarter saw oil production averaging around 631,000 barrels per day (b/d) in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana. United States (US) giant, ExxonMobil, operates the oil-rich block along with Hess Corporation and CNOOC.
However, production is expected to increase later this year with the Yellowtail Project – Exxon’s fourth development project offshore – adding another 250,000 b/d. Ahead of start up in August 2025, the ONE GUYANA floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) arrived in Guyana’s waters last month and is estimated to take total daily production capacity in the Stabroek Block to some 900,000 barrels.
Initially, the Guyana Government had forecast that the oil production will reach approximately 674,000 b/d this year, generating some US$17.61 billion – based on the Brent crude price. Of this amount, Guyana will get US$2.5 billion in oil revenues including US$2.16 billion from its share of profit and US$341 million from royalty payments. Already in the first quarter of 2025, Guyana received US$605.46 million.
There are currently three FPSOs operating in Guyana’s offshore waters: the Liza destiny, the Liza Unity and the Prosperity. They are respectively working on the Liza One, Liza Phase Two, and Payara projects.
Six FPSOs are expected to be operating offshore Guyana by 2027.
The fifth FPSO, which would be named Errea- Wittu, would operate in the Urau Project. It would have oil storage capacity of two million barrels, an oil production design rate of 250,000 barrels per day, and be able to offload approximately one million barrels onto a tanker in a period of approximately 24 hours.
The IMF Executive Board recently concluded the 2025 Article IV Consultation with Guyana, lauding the country’s economic progress to attain high-income status that was supported by its rapidly expanding oil production and robust non-oil growth.
“They noted that Guyana’s economic outlook remains highly favourable with balanced risks, strong fundamentals, and a strong external position supported by substantial accumulation of oil revenue in the Natural Resource Fund. They commended the authorities’ commitment to balancing development needs with prudent policies to entrench macroeconomic and fiscal stability,” a release from the IMF last Wednesday stated.
Only in March, a staff team from the IMF completed their 2025 Article IV Consultation with Guyana. The consultation, held both virtually and in-person in Georgetown from February 24 to March 7, 2025, involved discussions with high-level Government officials as well as stakeholders from the private sector, labour unions, and banks.
In its Staff Report, it was noted that Guyana recorded the highest real GDP growth rate globally, averaging 47 per cent between 2022 and 2024. This was driven by surging oil production, strong non-oil sector performance, and large-scale infrastructure development.
Looking ahead, the report projects continued expansion in oil output, with non-oil growth remaining robust—supported by government-led investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, economic diversification, and social development initiatives.