Guyana continues to be primary driver of regional performance – CDB report

-cites slower growth since 2024 with energy sector remaining key contributor

Driven largely by its burgeoning energy sector, Guyana has maintained a dominant economic performance at a time when global uncertainty, climate shocks, and domestic structural challenges have slowed growth across the Caribbean.
This is according to the latest edition of the Caribbean Development Bank’s (CDB) flagship publication – Caribbean Economic Review and Outlook 2025-2026 – which was released on Friday.
“The Caribbean’s economic performance remained subdued in 2025, shaped by stable global growth but heightened geopolitical uncertainty, evolving trade and tariff policies, intensifying climate impacts, and persistent domestic structural challenges,” the report stated.
It further pointed out that regional growth, excluding Guyana, slowed to 0.6 per cent in 2025 from 1.4 per cent in 2024 as activity weakened across most of the Bank’s 19 Borrowing Member Countries (BMCs). In fact, 11 of the 19 BMCs recorded smaller expansions relative to 2024, while three experienced contractions.
However, Guyana continues to be the primary driver of regional economic performance, as the country’s robust expansion moderated from extraordinary levels. “Including Guyana, regional growth was 4.7 per cent, down from 8.3 per cent in 2024, with overall growth still driven largely by Guyana’s performance,” it highlighted.
The report finds too that performance among the commodity-exporting economies diverged, partly reflecting varying stages of energy-sector development.

Scaling energy sector
Though Guyana remained the dominant performer among the group and the region, the CDB report outlined that the country’s growth decelerated to 19.5 per cent, down from 43.6 per cent in 2024. “This slower growth reflected a more moderate pace of oil-sector expansion relative to 2024, the first full year of peak production from the country’s third oil field. Despite this deceleration, the rapidly scaling energy sector remained the main driver of economic activity,” it stated.
In 2025, Guyana’s oil production rose by 15.8 per cent to 261 million barrels per day, that is, 715,000 barrels per day on average, supported by the start-up of the Yellowtail oil field in August and optimisation at the Payara oil field, which lifted output to roughly 15.0 per cent above its designed capacity.
The CDB report further highlighted that Guyana’s non-oil economy also expanded strongly, boosted by a significant scaling-up of public investments in roads, bridges, energy systems, and social facilities, alongside strong private investment in tourism and real estate.
Similarly, it noted that agriculture was supported by growth in non-traditional crops, while services expanded, driven by growth in wholesale and retail trade, repairs, and administrative and support services. Mixed outcomes. Moreover, the report added that other commodity-exporting economies expanded but remained below pre-pandemic levels of output in 2025.
Suriname experienced moderate growth supported by offshore energy-related investment, while Trinidad and Tobago saw flat growth amid weakness in both the energy and non-energy sectors. Jamaica and Haiti were affected by climate-related disruptions, including Hurricane Melissa, which dampened economic activity and tourism demand. Haiti’s economy contracted for the seventh consecutive year as insecurity continued to suppress growth.
Despite slower economic activity, labour market conditions remained broadly stable across the region, with unemployment declining in most reporting BMCs. However, long-standing youth and gender disparities persisted, alongside labour shortages in some sectors. Inflation also moderated across the region, supported by lower global commodity prices, although it remained above pre-pandemic levels in most economies.
The report further highlights that fiscal performance across the region was mixed. Excluding Guyana, the regional primary surplus narrowed to 1.3 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 from 1.6 per cent in 2024, reflecting slower revenue growth and rising expenditure pressures. Debt levels remained elevated in several economies, with nine BMCs recording central government debt-to-GDP ratios above 60 per cent.

Nevertheless, financial sectors remained broadly stable, supported by adequate capitalisation, high liquidity, strengthened credit growth, and continued regulatory reforms.

Regional outlook
Looking ahead, the report projects that regional growth excluding Guyana will remain subdued at 1.1 per cent in 2026. Including Guyana, growth is expected to rise to 6.2 per cent, largely reflecting continued expansion in the country’s oil sector.
“Guyana will remain the primary driver of regional growth, with output expected to expand by 21.9 per cent, supported by a 25.3 per cent increase in oil production to 327.3 million barrels. Consequently, when Guyana is included, regional GDP growth is projected to rise to 6.2 per cent,” the report stated.
Further, it added that among the other commodity-exporting economies, Suriname’s growth is expected to strengthen moderately as offshore oil-related investment continues to support activity. In Trinidad and Tobago, growth in 2026 is projected to remain subdued as the anticipated gains from new energy developments and diversification efforts are unlikely to translate into broad-based economic momentum in the near term.
However, the Caribbean’s outlook remains clouded by significant downside risks, including slower global growth, geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, climate shocks, and fiscal vulnerabilities.
“While the Caribbean continues to demonstrate resilience, the region’s growth prospects remain constrained by external uncertainty, climate-related shocks, and longstanding structural challenges,” CDB’s Acting Director of Economics, Christine Dawson, said.
She added that “strengthening institutions, accelerating reforms, and improving project execution will be critical to unlocking higher, more inclusive, and more sustainable growth across the region.”